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Risk & Sizing

Would you take a setup if earnings are coming up soon?

26 Oct 2026 · Edited from Martin’s stream; not a verbatim quotation.

It depends on how soon earnings are coming and how good the setup looks. Generally, I won't take a stock within five days of earnings, I think 95% of the time. Even if I take it, I'll sell at least half, or exit, if I don't have enough cushion before the release. I also look at the ADR and how volatile the stock was during its last five earnings. With COIN, I might want more than 5%, or even 7–8%, of cushion. Otherwise I may sell half or all of it.

Source: EWZ crash | 26 Oct 2026