If this is a parabolic top after a 1,600% move, what usually happens next?

After the first leg down, there is often a second attempt higher. It may look like a good bull flag and try to break out, but then fail and ride the 9 EMA lower. Volkswagen in 2021 had a parabolic top with two attempts to set up higher, but both failed. After closing below and losing the 9 EMA, price reached the 50 EMA and then formed a nine- month Stage 3 base before entering Stage 4. Waiting for the declining 9 EMA and a bounce into it gives a better short entry. If you don't wait for a close below the 9 EMA, you have a higher chance of being stopped out when support holds.

Source: Watchlist rules, AVWAP, $GLD $SLV shorts and more | 12 Mar 2026